Hindsight is 20/20, says the popular wisdom. Excuse me, but I disagree. Most of us look back with lenses that are as narrow and finite as those we use to squint into the future.

Here’s another way of looking backward—and forward. One could say that history is a mix of high-probability and low-probability events. We always focus on what we perceive to be the high-probability stuff and tailor our strategies accordingly. But our ability to calculate the odds is based on very limited perceptions.

Let’s zero in on some of the defining events of the last 100 years or so. Virtually all were low-probability events, unpredictable and unpredicted. For example, who would have guessed that in 1903, the careful experiments of a couple of bicycle mechanics would show that controlled, manned flight was indeed possible, contradicting the view of many of the top scientists of the day?

Or that in 1905, an obscure patent officer would publish five papers that laid the foundations of relativity, sparked quantum theory, and led eventually to atomic weapons and modern communications? That in 1914, a traditional balance-of-power conflict in Europe would result in the fatal weakening of the imperial powers of Russia, Austria–Hungary, and Germany; relegate Britain to former Great Power; and set the scene for the Russian Revolution and the birth of communism?

That the stock market crash of 1929 would overturn economic stability for nearly a decade? And the 1920s and ’30s would see the rise to power of a trio of ruthless and unlikely dictators—a failed artist in Germany, a former seminary student in the Soviet Union, and a studious peasant in China—whose ideologies and programs would lead to the deaths of tens of millions?

Or that World War II would spark massive government spending on science and technology that would, in turn, play a key role in establishing our current technological era?

How in an instant the Soviet ally would become the Soviet menace, and the Cold War would be born? That the conformity and stability of the 1950s would be turned upside down by the youth revolution of the 1960s, with the tiny birth control pill encouraging sexual freedom, feminism, smaller families, and much larger numbers of women in the workplace?

That rapid industrialization and the internal combustion engine would create such widespread wealth and mobility, while at the same time contributing to the global warming we’re experiencing today?

That technical advances from the mathematics of information theory to the practical wizardry of the transistor and, later, the integrated circuit and fibre optics

would set the stage for digital computers and the Internet?

That technology would engulf the economy to such an extent that the market cap of odd-sounding firms such as Microsoft and Google, whose ultimate resource is legions of software coders, would dwarf that of car manufacturers and oil companies? And China would become a factory to the world?

That a former cheerleader from Yale (even one with a famous father) would be elected to the most powerful post on Earth by the hanging chads of Florida? Or the Twin Towers could be taken down by a handful of poorly trained pilots armed only with box cutters?

And that as a consequence, the United States would stumble into quagmires in Afghanistan and Iraq, limiting the superpower’s global options and weakening the treasury at the same time as the baby boomers prepare to retire and economic power is shifting to Asia. That Iran, a radical state born in reaction to the pretense of the U.S.–installed Shah, would become a pivotal player in global power politics? Oil would get so scarce and pricey, as ice sheets melt away and hurricanes build strength? China would become the global lender of last resort, with the power to undermine the U.S. dollar should it choose to do so?
The point is that the turning points of history tend to be driven by obscure individuals and under-the-radar trends—in a phrase, by low-probability events, at least as seen from within the status quo.

In many ways, modern civilization in the West is a paragon of wealth, freedom, and security, based on an international system of checks and balances that would be the envy of the most enlightened Roman emperor. For all of its problems, Atlantic Canada has a privileged place in this geography.

This is a good time, certainly, and there is no reason to expect it to end anytime soon. What might come next? There is power in just asking the question. As the historical events show, it is not safe to assume that the future will just be an adjustment of the past.

There are two keys to foresight. One is access to information, but that is a double-edged sword, for information can be overwhelming and serve mostly to reinforce existing prejudices. The other, and the most important, is the ability to see the world from different angles without being overly married to anyone view.

The ability to master this kaleidoscopic view is the secret to both strategy and innovation. It is why the great generals, political leaders, scientists, inventors, and entrepreneurs—both the heroes and the villains—tend to come from the fringe. They are not wedded to the status quo, and neither is the future.